Ethiopia's Tigray region faces renewed conflict fears, jeopardizing a fragile November 2022 peace deal.
Tensions escalate between federal authorities and Tigrayan leaders, with both sides accusing the other of breaches and external interference. A significant driver is Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's assertive pursuit of Red Sea access, a strategic imperative for landlocked Ethiopia since Eritrea's independence in 1993.
This ambition has alarmed Eritrea, which fears a military strike on its port of Assab and has reportedly begun aligning with its former rivals, Tigrayan forces, despite denials. The escalating rhetoric and shifting alliances have already triggered severe economic consequences in Tigray, with tourism collapsing, ATMs empty, and critical supply chains for farmers disrupted.
International bodies, including the UN, EU, and UK, have urged restraint, highlighting the potential for widespread instability and humanitarian crisis. Investors should note the heightened geopolitical risk in the Horn of Africa, impacting regional trade, infrastructure projects, and commodity flows.
