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Elite Sentiment · Geopolitics · Russia · Ukraine War
A deepening gloom grips Russia's political and business elite, who now view a "frozen" conflict as the most favorable outcome for President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine, significantly shaking their absolute belief in his leadership and prompting a desire for the fighting to cease.
Many within the elite are tired of the war and want it to stop, though they doubt Putin will halt the fighting. While no one is willing to directly confront the president, the invasion has eroded confidence in his leadership, according to four people familiar with the situation.
Kirill Rogov, head of Re:Russia, notes the widespread belief among the Russian elite that Putin will not win the war. This despondency intensifies a blame game between nationalist hard-liners, including Wagner mercenary group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin, and Russia's Defense Ministry, led by Sergei Shoigu.
Expectations are low for significant battlefield advances, especially after a winter of little progress and huge casualties. Recent events, such as the catastrophic dam breach in Ukraine and drone strikes in Moscow, further challenge Putin's image as a guarantor of security.
