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Energy Prices · Geopolitics · Global Growth · Supply Chains
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) revised its 2027 global growth forecast downward to 3% from a previous higher estimate, while maintaining its 2026 forecast at 2.9%, attributing the adjustment to escalating Middle East tensions, surging energy prices, and disrupted supply chains.
The OECD's interim Economic Outlook report, titled Testing Resilience, states that near-halted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and damage to regional energy infrastructure have triggered sharp price increases, disrupted key commodity supplies, and increased financial market volatility. The organization warns that persistently high energy prices will raise business costs and add to inflationary pressures.
For Türkiye, the OECD lowered its 2026 growth forecast by 0.1 percentage point to 3.3% and cut its 2027 estimate by 0.2 percentage points to 3.8%, forecasting inflation at 26.7% in 2026 and 16.9% in 2027. Inflation across G20 economies is expected to reach 4% in 2026, 1.2 percentage points above previous estimates, before easing to 2.7% in 2027.
