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Economic Sentiment · Home Builders · Housing Market · NAHB Index
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported its April Housing Market Index (HMI) plummeted to 34, significantly missing the 37 expected and falling from the prior 38, indicating a deepening recession in the U.S. housing industry.
The HMI, a widely followed gauge of sentiment from a survey of 900 home builders, measures current sales, expected sales, and prospective buyer traffic, with 50 as the favorable/unfavorable dividing line. All three subcomponents declined in April, with single-family sales falling to 37 from 42, prospective buyers to 22 from 25, and sales expectations to 42 from 49.
This marks a reversal from March's modest rebound to 38. The index has remained stubbornly below 50 throughout 2025 and into 2026, reflecting persistent affordability headwinds from elevated mortgage rates, high construction costs, and stretched home prices.
Builders continue to respond with sales incentives, with two-thirds offering them, and over a third cutting prices by an average of 6%. While borrowing costs have ticked down since a recent ceasefire, the article states the Federal Reserve is a long way from rate cuts, despite indications of a solid broader economy.
