Knight-Swift Slashes Q1 Outlook, Q2 Profit Expected Higher

(KNX), a freight carrier, significantly revised its first-quarter adjusted earnings outlook downward to $0.08-$0.10 per share from an earlier $0.28-$0.32 per share, citing an arbitration award, severe winter weather, higher fuel prices, and a Mexican VAT decision. The company now projects Q1 adjusted income between $0.08 and $0.10 per share, a substantial reduction from its previous forecast of $0.28 to $0.32 per share.

This downward revision includes a $0.08 per share negative impact from an unfavorable arbitration award, a $0.05 to $0.06 per share negative impact from severe winter weather and increased fuel prices, and a $0.02 per share negative impact from an adverse VAT reimbursement decision in Mexico related to prior tax years. Despite the Q1 challenges, Knight-Swift initiated second-quarter fiscal 2026 adjusted profit guidance of $0.45 to $0.49 per share, which is an increase compared to the $0.35 per share adjusted profit reported in the second quarter of 2025.

CEO Adam Miller stated that while winter weather negatively impacted volumes and operating costs, it also highlighted a reduction in truckload capacity, which is significant for ongoing bid activity. He also noted the rapid increase in fuel costs as a headwind in March.

The Q2 projection reflects recent trends in volumes, spot rates, and bid activity, alongside expectations for demand.