Italian payments group Nexi experienced a sharp stock decline of over 20% following its fourth-quarter earnings report and forward guidance.
The company's Q4 revenue remained flat at €942.5 million, falling 1% short of consensus estimates, while EBITDA modestly slipped to €508.6 million, 2% below expectations. This underperformance was primarily attributed to ongoing bank merchant-book M&A activity and contract renegotiations, factors expected to continue impacting results through 2026.
For the upcoming year, Nexi projects performance broadly in line with 2025's 2.1% revenue growth, with EBITDA remaining stable due to planned strategic investments. Analysts, including Morgan Stanley's Adam Wood, anticipate these projections will lead to consensus earnings downgrades for both 2026 and the medium term.
Despite outlining a new midterm strategy targeting mid-single-digit annual revenue growth and EBITDA margin expansion by 2028, and committing to over €1.1 billion in shareholder distributions, the immediate outlook has significantly dampened investor confidence. Jefferies analysts also noted that the 2026 targets might appear ambitious given recent momentum and the need for new investments to reignite growth without risking further contract losses.
