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Defensive Assets · Geopolitical Risk · Portfolio Strategy · Wartime Investing
Francesco Casarella of Colazione a Wall Street, writing for Investing.com, analyzed historical market performance during geopolitical conflicts, revealing that markets do not always decline and certain defensive sectors consistently outperform, providing investors with strategies to build resilient portfolios.
The analysis identifies gold, defense stocks, energy, consumer staples, and government bonds as key assets for investors seeking to "war-proof" portfolios. For instance, gold surged 70% during World War II and spiked 16% during the 2014 Crimean crisis, demonstrating its safe-haven appeal.
Defense stocks outpaced the S&P 500 by 30% during the Gulf War, fueled by increased military spending. Energy prices, particularly crude oil, spiked 400% during the Yom Kippur War due to supply disruptions, while consumer staples returned an average of 5.3% annually during World War II, proving their stability.
Government bonds from stable nations, such as U.S. Treasuries and German Bunds, also become highly appealing. A hypothetical balanced portfolio allocates 30% to government bonds, 25% to defensive stocks, 15% to gold and precious metals, 10% to energy stocks, 10% to defense stocks, and 10% to cash, aiming to balance safety with growth potential during turbulent times.
War should result in higher military spending, but things aren’t so simple for the biggest weapons makers.
