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Competition · Domino'S · Fast-Casual · Pizza
Domino's stock posted its worst performance in over a year after missing Q4 U.S. same-store sales estimates (5.6% vs 6.9% expected), yet it remains the quick-service pizza market leader, while rivals Papa John's and Pizza Hut struggle, and new fast-casual chains like Blaze Pizza rapidly expand.
Domino's reported U.S. same-store sales growth of 5.6% during the fourth quarter, missing analyst expectations, attributed to an expansion strategy and a calendar change. Despite this, analysts like BTIG's Peter Saleh remain upbeat, noting Domino's past ability to reaccelerate comparable sales.
Domino's shares are up nearly 12% over the past year, with a market value of $10.5 billion. Papa John's, with a $1.3 billion market cap, saw its stock decline nearly 27% over the past year, struggling to regain customers after founder scandals, and analysts expect a 7.4% same-store sales decline and 67.8% lower Q4 earnings, prompting Stifel's Chris O'Cull to downgrade the stock.
Pizza Hut, a Yum Brands subsidiary, saw U.S. same-store sales grow by 1% in Q4, but analyst Mark Kalinowski suspects it will continue to lose market share in 2019. Yum Brands' stock rose nearly 16% over the past year, with a $28.5 billion market value.
Meanwhile, fast-casual chains like Blaze Pizza (over 300 locations) and Mod Pizza are rapidly expanding, with Blaze testing nationwide delivery via Postmates and considering an IPO, posing a meaningful threat to Domino's dominance.
