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Economic Indicators · Economic Slowdown · Market Outlook · US Economy
The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US declined by 0.2% in December 2025 to 97.6, marking its fifth consecutive monthly drop and signaling continued economic softness into early 2026.
The LEI's 1.2% fall over the second half of 2025 represented an improvement from its 2.8% contraction during the first half of 2025, yet December's decline followed 0.3% in November and a revised 0.2% in October. Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager at The Conference Board, noted positive contributions from financial components, including a positive yield spread, and a rise in building permits.
However, persistently weak consumer expectations indicators and the ISM® New Orders Index, alongside increased unemployment claims and reduced average weekly hours in manufacturing, made the largest negative contributions. The Conference Board projects a slowdown in growth in Q4 2025 and early 2026, with GDP set to expand by 2.1% year-over-year in 2026, down from a forecasted 2.2% in 2025.
In contrast, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the US rose by 0.2% in December 2025 to 115.0, reflecting current economic conditions, while the Lagging Economic Index (LAG) inched down 0.1%.
Conference Board LEI Declines, Signals Early 2026 Slowdown(current)
