Trump's disinterest transforms Ukraine talks into 'theater,' extending war 1-3 years, fueling market risk.

Both nations, fearing Trump's potential disengagement or punitive actions, are striving to avoid appearing as obstacles to a peaceful resolution. Talks in Geneva, mediated by Washington, concluded without tangible progress, despite optimistic diplomatic statements.

Former U.S. ambassador to NATO, Ivo Daalder, characterized the process as a "game" to deflect blame from Trump for the war's continuation. A Ukrainian official confirmed the performance aspect, designed to convince Trump of Ukraine's cooperation.

Kyiv and Moscow are concerned about losing U.S. support or facing harsher sanctions if Trump's patience wanes, especially as his administration reportedly loses interest in the peace process, shifting focus to Iran and Gaza. European intelligence suggests Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is negotiating in bad faith, seeking battlefield gains through talks.

A ceasefire is not expected, with officials estimating the war could last another one to three years. While some U.S. officials hoped for an agreement before midterm elections, Trump is not applying additional pressure.

Ukrainian and Russian delegations, including Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Rustem Umerov, and Vladimir Medinsky, offered varying assessments of the recent Geneva talks, from "dead end" to "significant progress" on military issues.